Trump vs Kamala: What’s at stake for India?
As Americans head to the polls in what promises to be one of the most consequential elections in recent history, India watches with keen interest. The choice between Donald Trump's return and a potential Kamala Harris presidency could significantly reshape Indo-US relations. While both scenarios offer distinct opportunities and challenges for India, the implications run deeper than mere bilateral ties.
What does each Presidency bring to the table?
A second Trump presidency could fundamentally reshape India's global manufacturing ambitions. His aggressive decoupling agenda with China and potential punitive tariffs on Chinese imports could accelerate supply chain shifts to India. Trump's previous support for streamlined defense technology transfers and joint military exercises suggests deeper security cooperation. His administration's demonstrated willingness to overlook domestic political considerations in favor of strategic alignment - as seen in their stance on Article 370 and CAA - indicates continued policy autonomy for India on internal matters.
However, Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy poses specific risks to Indian interests. His 'America First' trade policies previously led to removal of India's GSP (Generalized System of Preferences) status, affecting $6.3 billion of exports. His administration's skepticism of H1-B visas and history of pressuring companies to 'reshore' jobs threatens India's $245 billion IT services sector. More critically, the unpredictability of his trade negotiations, as evidenced by sudden tariff threats and demands for bilateral deals, could create uncertainty for Indian exporters.
A Harris presidency would be historically significant - the first Indian-origin leader of the world's most powerful nation. Beyond symbolism, Harris's established policy priorities could reshape Indo-US dynamics. Her push for stricter environmental standards and carbon reduction targets could accelerate India's green transition, potentially unlocking preferential access to climate financing and clean technology transfers. Her administration's focus on semiconductor sovereignty aligns with India's ambitious chip manufacturing goals, though her stance on intellectual property rights could complicate technology transfers that India seeks.
Yet, Harris's track record suggests potential friction points that go beyond rhetoric. Her emphasis on labor standards in trade agreements could impact India's manufacturing cost advantages. Her administration's likely insistence on stronger data privacy frameworks and democratic oversight of digital platforms could accelerate regulatory pressures on India's burgeoning tech sector. More significantly, her previous advocacy for stronger human rights conditions in defense partnerships and criticism of India's policies in Kashmir indicates a willingness to leverage security cooperation for broader policy objectives. While these challenges are navigable, they demand a more sophisticated diplomatic approach than India's current 'strategic autonomy' stance.
Does it change anything for India?
The convergence of Indo-US interests transcends presidential personalities. Both potential administrations recognize India's indispensable role in counterbalancing China's aggressive Indo-Pacific expansion. Defense cooperation, particularly in advanced technologies and intelligence sharing, has become too strategically valuable to roll back. Trade relationships, despite occasional rhetoric, continue deepening with India's growing consumer market proving irresistible for American businesses. Even on contentious issues like climate action, pragmatic collaboration trumps ideological differences as both nations pursue energy security alongside sustainability.
This is not the 90s anymore
India's meteoric economic rise fundamentally alters the bilateral equation. Unlike the 1990s when America's support for economic reforms was crucial, today's India commands attention through market power. With the world's fastest-growing major economy and a domestic market larger than several G7 nations combined, India's leverage extends beyond traditional diplomacy. Silicon Valley's growing reliance on Indian talent, American manufacturers' urgent need for China alternatives, and Wall Street's hunger for Indian IPOs create powerful constituencies favoring strong Indo-US ties regardless of White House occupancy.
This evolving power dynamic suggests that while presidential preferences might influence the tone of engagement, they're unlikely to derail its substance. Trump's transactional instincts or Harris's ideological inclinations will ultimately bow to structural realities. India's role as a democratic counterweight to China, its massive market potential, and its growing technological capabilities make it too crucial a partner to alienate.
However, India must play its cards shrewdly. Rather than banking on personal chemistry or cultural connections, the focus should be on leveraging American strategic needs while protecting core interests. Whether it's negotiating better market access under Trump or managing scrutiny of domestic policies under Harris, India's diplomatic toolkit needs to expand beyond traditional government-to-government channels to include business coalitions, diaspora networks, and technology partnerships.
As America makes its choice today through its unique electoral college system, India watches not with anxiety but strategic patience. Our own recent electoral surprise reminds us that democracy's verdicts often confound conventional wisdom. But unlike the past when US electoral outcomes could dramatically impact India's fortunes, today's relationship rests on firmer foundations of mutual necessity rather than mere choice.
